The latest poll results, reported in today’s Irish Times, show that the outcome of the May 31 referendum is still wide open: many voters are still undecided and given the degree of anti-austerity anger in the country, this could easily upset the 60:40 split in favour of the treaty among those who have decided how they will vote. Meanwhile, the government’s effort to build support for the treaty are complicated by rampant uncertainty about Greece’s future, which both Yes and No camps are claiming as supportive of their position, and especially by uncertainty surrounding the new French government’s ultimate position, when push comes to shove, on ratification versus renegotiation.
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Category: Commentary, Fiscal Treaty
A.Storey says:
What always strikes me about these opinion polls is the percentage of people saying they will not vote, which in this case is 4%. In previous treaty referenda, turnout has ranged from 35% (Nice 1) to 59% (Lisbon 2). There is little reason to believe turnout this time will be much in excess of the latter figure (it could well be lower). So how good a guide are the polls? Either a lot of people are lying about whether they plan to vote or not (even allowing for the fact that some do plan to vote but won’t get around to it on the day) or there is a problem of unrepresentative sampling. The latter is unlikely but we are still left with the situation in which a huge number of people are misleading the pollsters.