Pure fantasy or realistic forecast?

The Economist published this week a lengthy and well-reasoned guess at the type of extreme options that some within the German government may — with emphasis on ‘may’ — be considering in response to the Eurozone crisis: namely, to break up the Eurozone by forcing a Greek exit, or even by forcing a multi-state exit including Ireland. Is this pure fantasy or a realistic forecast?  German economy minister Philip Roesler admitted several weeks ago that the prospect of Greece leaving the euro has “lost its terror,” and Finnish foreign minister Erkki Tuomioja has now revealed that his ministry is making contingency plans for a Euro breakup. The question is just whether a Eurozone state could be forcibly ejected from the common currency. Lawyers will respond that the EU treaties provide no mechanism for either option in the Economist’s memoranum, and I’m certain that nobody in Berlin is anxious to see Germany blamed for destroying Europe (again). But if the crisis continues to fester and national publics became ever more Eurosceptic, ‘never say never’ would be wise counsel.

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