Fiscal treaty referendum is still wide open

The latest poll results, reported in today’s Irish Times, show that the outcome of the May 31 referendum is still wide open: many voters are still undecided and given the degree of anti-austerity anger in the country, this could easily upset the 60:40 split in favour of the treaty among those who have decided how they will vote. Meanwhile, the government’s effort to build support for the treaty are complicated by rampant uncertainty about Greece’s future, which both Yes and No camps are claiming as supportive of their position, and especially by uncertainty surrounding the new French government’s ultimate position, when push comes to shove, on ratification versus renegotiation.